High Yield Morning Update

Investment grade and high yield credit rallied modestly following the French election and the release of solid economic data. The VIX is at or near all-time lows, even when many are saying high yield is overvalued.  Many also say that rates are going to rise, in which case we believe investors should stay away from long duration assets like investment grade. Yesterday’s PPI numbers fueled the rising rates thesis but then the CPI numbers are out today and rates are easing.  Demographics are still the animal in the room as the world population is aging and will be the enormous force against anything the government can or will do to stoke the economic engine.  The new-issue market brought two new deals yesterday for $605M in proceeds, bringing the monthly tally to 21 deals for $10.15B in proceeds.  The new issue deal flow is 35% above 2016 year-over-year.  Lipper reported a $1.7B outflow from high yield mutual and exchange traded funds for the reporting week ended May 10th.  This is the second consecutive week of outflows.  The key 10-Year US Treasury yield fell back below the 2.37% resistance level it breached earlier in the week.

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