The Bank of Canada surprised markets today by cutting rates. With a Federal election approaching, an argument could certainly be made for some political angling. Regardless, the reaction of the Canadian dollar was swift and immediate, plunging almost 1.5 cents against the greenback. The Eastern provinces focused on manufacturing benefit from a very weak C$, as it boosts competitiveness in the export markets. Importantly, the oil industry also benefits as they are receiving primarily US dollars for selling oil, against Canadian dollar expenses, helping to improve profit margins. This, along with tight differentials for heavy oil (referring to the price of WCS, Western Canadian Select, a heavier grade of crude oil, versus WTI, or West Texas Intermediate), provide some powerful offsets to crude’s pricing implosion and we expect will benefit many Canadian oil producers, an area of the market in which we have been strategically positioned. At some point, we believe that oil prices will stabilize and these fundamentals will be recognized and rewarded.
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