Author Archives: Tim Gramatovich
High Yield Investing: Risk and Outcomes
We have been active in the credit markets for decades and we see the primary risk for credit investors is default. While interest rates play a role in all asset classes, they historically have a very limited effect on a …
US Financial Markets: Fundamentals and the Outlook for Equities
The US dollar and bond markets will continue to benefit from a flight to quality trade keeping rates much lower than expected by many. However, this is not because we see the US economy performing exceptionally well; rather, just less …
Liquidity Management
Much attention has been drawn to the lack of liquidity in fixed income markets over the past six months. One of the areas of specific focus has been the high yield exchange traded fund (ETF) space. There is no question …
The Origin and Growth of the High Yield Market
Most investors place the origins of the high yield market in the late 1970s, which would not necessarily be wrong if by the high yield market we mean “original issue” high yield. Truthfully, high yield lending has been going on …
Irrational Oil Markets
“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent,” John Maynard Keynes We would think if Mr. Keynes was alive today, he would certainly apply his famous quote to today’s oil markets. After collapsing almost 50% during the last …
Canada’s Surprise Interest Rate Move
The Bank of Canada surprised markets today by cutting rates. With a Federal election approaching, an argument could certainly be made for some political angling. Regardless, the reaction of the Canadian dollar was swift and immediate, plunging almost 1.5 cents …
Right for the Wrong Reason
It has been a poorly kept secret that I am among the biggest skeptics in the planet as it relates to this whole US “energy independence” fantasy. As a credit investor, I have been “no bid” on the entire US …
Active Investing: Opportunity in Gold
As active managers, we embrace both a top down and bottom up investment philosophy as we look for opportunities for investment. One such potential opportunity we are seeing from more of a top down, thematic approach is in gold. Before …
Rome is Burning
The concurrent storms in energy and the secondary bond/loan markets have tested our mettle. However, we believe that both of these will pass as quickly as they came, but provide fantastic entry points for thoughtful investors as there is a …
Election Impact on Oil
The tally is in and it was a very bad evening for the Democratic party. Senate races in Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and a host of other States went red. Alaska is still to be determined (likely Republican) and Louisiana …